A prolonged study of world-wide accounts of close encounters with unidentifiable aerial artifacts led, by synthesis, to the formulation of the:

The original data sample used to establish the Theory was drawn from the period 1885-1971. It was demonstrated that all the best close encounter (CE)events recorded during that period could have resulted from a highly programmed surveillance and exploration activity carried out from Space. In view of the advanced nature of the craft described by witnesses and the fact that many of the reports pre-dated our Space Age, the conclusions had to be drawn that the artifacts had not been man-made and had probably originated from extraterrestrial sources.

It is important to emphasise that the Theory evolved from data processing and was not contrived at outset.

A programmed strategy for the systemmatic surveillance of Earth seems to have been discovered. This involves the adoption of a well-defined set of approach paths to Earth from Space, which could result in craft orbiting the planet from those paths. The paths are inclined to the Equator at angles within a range of angles which guarantee full coverage of all the inhabited regions. Since the model was derived from events on or near to the Earth's surface, it was implied that the atmospheric craft had been delivered and would be retrieved by spacecraft following the programmed paths in Space.

Four well-used astro-navigational orientations of the "orbital" paths have been discovered, and these determine the local times of the CE EVENTS. Two of the orientations are related to the fixed stars. The other two are Sun-related and cross the terminator on opposite sides of the Earth's polar axis.

A further important discovery was that paths linking events geographically were, notionally, the paths of spacecraft orbiting the planet, in retrograde (East to West) motion at super-orbital speed.  The period (time for one revolution) of the "orbits" had been apparently constant throughout the entire period of 86 years.

Finally, it was observed that ground tracks often passed through fixed navigational marker points on the Equator. It was considered that this feature of the programming would serve to provide geographical reference points for the approaching spacecraft.

All this being so, the surveillance activity could be considered to be fully automated and capable of being executed by intelligent (robotic) probes. Furthermore, given these circumstances, it is to be expected that bases have been established within our Solar Sytem.

TWO.   DEVELOPMENT

Since 1988, PC programmes have been developed to enable new data to be processed and to be checked for correlation with the timing predictions of the Theory. During this processing some features of the original model have been refined, removing most of the uncertainties which had remained during the initial, manual processing of data.

Programmes now exist to check, numerically, the timings of new UFO reports against the predictions of the model. The latest version of this series checks actual event times to within one minute of expectations.

Another important programmed produces a predicted-timings graph for any given geographical location. These graphs plot Standard Time against days of the year - and, provided the rules are not changed, they apply to any year. Related to the timings graph, a latitude/longitude grid map is produced to display the computed ground track lines serving the given location, and for which the timings lines have been calculated.

Since 1990, these programmes have been used extensively to check new data against the astronautical model. Currently, any event which occurs within +/- 20 minutes of a predicted time is considered to be further confirmation of the model, though doubt may remain in some circumstances.

Doubts arise then two or more track timings are found within the 20-minute boundaries; or when an event lies midway between two consecutive predictions.

The latter case requires further discussion.

The model suggests that the exploration craft are mostly visible on or soon after arrival from Space and, again, just prior to departure for a rendezvous in Space. It suggests that, between two consecutive timings, the craft operate unnoticed under the cover of darkness or, perhaps, may hide in seclusion until collection time arrives. Indeed, there is evidence that both these tactics are frequently used. But this generalisation may not be a rigidly enforced rule.

The occasional sighting of a craft between predicted timings does not necessarily invalidate the model or the report. The main consequence is that such an event cannot be used to positively validate the Theory.

Even with this constraint imposed, correlation with the predicted times is generally better than 70% for a typical sample of up to 50 investigated UFO reports - and for major CE events, it is better than 90%.

To date, some 840 additional reports have been processed. (There were over 400 reports in the initial sample which was used to establish the Theory.)

The computer-processed sample includes data from 1950 to the present day. Over 460 of the cases have been reported, to date, during the 1990's.

Given the high rates of correlation being achieved, it is now considered that the Astronautical Theory has been more than sufficiently validated. This has led to a study of world-wide tactics, the purpose of which will be to discover any additional rules governing the surveillance and exploration activities. This paper reports on current findings.

THREE:   OBSERVATIONS ON TACTICS

The exercise now being considered has been greatly facilitated by two developments. Firstly, a specialised (manual) compilation programme creates a listing of all qualifying processed events and provides limited sorting of the information.
Secondly, apparently reliable, worldwide information gathered from the Internet created, at times, a day-by-day database for 1996 and the first three months of 1997 (see Section 9.)

Before the observations to date are listed, it will be important to explain the processing involved and to define terms being used.

(a) Processing

As explained previously, there should be two tracks in Space related to each validated UFO event. For this reason the initial processing identifies all track options which produce timing predictions within +/- one hour of the reported time. Tracks with predictions earlier than actual are regarded as possible delivery tracks and those with later predictions as potential retrieval candidates. All essential details are printed out, giving time differences to the nearest minute in each case.

By examination of this initial output, the track options regarded as being the most likely ones are selected for manual inclusion in the compilation programme.
The compiled listing can then be sorted to discover any track similarities between events, for example, at different locations on the same date;  at the same location on different dates, and so on.

Using this technique, a number of important observations have been made about the tactics being favoured during spates of surveillance activity. These will be listed as promised but firstly, the terms being used will have to be defined.

(b) Terminology

INCLINATION

Each track over the ground is associated with the use, in Space, of a particular approach path, or orbit.  The plane of each identified path or orbit is inclined relative to the Equator at any angle which is one of ten identified by the Theory.   Hence, every ground track is associated with, and governed by, one of these specified orbit inclinations.

ORIENTATION

This refers to the astro-navigational"fix" used to orientate a path or orbit in Space. It determines at what time of day or night an event can occur at a given location on a given date.

GENERATOR

This is the name given to a fixed navigational point on the Equator which a track over the ground (and its associated orbit) passes through. It is the longitudinal position from which the track is generated northwestwards from the Equator as the spacecraft moves as if it were in orbit. It determines the locations which can be overflown from that path or orbit.

TRACK OPTION

This is a term used to denote a single combination of INCLINATION, ORIENTATION and GENERATOR which defines the path or orbit adopted for a given mission.
Example: If the times of events occurring at widely separated places are found to relate to tracks with the same inclination, orientation and generator longitudes, then those two events are related by the same track option.

SAME TRACK

This is a term sometimes used to refer to a ground track with a given inclination and a given generator longitude which links two or more places geographically. But, the same track can have any of the four orientations in Space and these are different at the individual event locations when this term is used.

FOUR:   OBSERVATIONS ON GLOBAL TACTICS

4.1

There appears to be no evidence that a single track option is used to link events in widely separated countries during the same activity period. Activity seems to be generally restricted to a targeted area in a selected country.

However, there are interesting alternative tactics used from time to time. These are outlined by Paragraph 4.2 below.

4.2

More than one country may be visited in the same short activity period by the adoption of one or more of the following tactics:-

(a)Same track with different orientations;

(b) Same inclination, same orientation, different generators

(c) Same generator, same orientation, different inclinations.

(d) Same inclination, different orientation, different generators.

(e) Different track options.

This is not a comprehensive list of the possibilities, but it contains all the wide-ranging global tactics which, currently, have been identified.  Whatever determines the choice from these combinations for each activity period has not yet become clear.

4.3

Several places in a given global area may be repeatedly visited by craft delivered/retrieved from spacecraft following the same track option.   The duration of the time slot at each site is determined by the choice of retrieval track option to serve that site.

4.4

During intense activity periods at a given location, particular combinations of track options appear to be favoured for both delivery and retrieval sequences. Frequently, the same track is used but its orientation is different for delivery and retrieval. In these circumstances, the activity period does not generally exceed 1.5 hours and this period is usually found to be the time between two consecutive predicted timings for that location. The combination of a star-orientated option with a Sun-orientated one is a common occurrence. There are numerous examples of this operational tactic, the use of which may be influenced by the relative closeness of the Sun to one of the two star-linked track orientations.

FIVE:  THE PROCESSED DATABASE LISTING

For the purpose of demonstrating the basis for each of the above observations, extracts from the sorted processed database will be presented. As output tabulations will be reproduced, it is important first to define the abbreviations used:-

'tx'
is the inclination of the plane of the path or obrit in Space relative to the Earth's equatorial plane, and is given in degrees.

'RA'
is the datum value of the celestial meridian, in hours, with which the path has been found to be associated by the local timing of an event. The values are 11.00 hrs or 21.30 hrs RA. A blank is displayed when the path in Space is otherwise orientated.

'Tr'
stands for 'terminator' and the column under this heading displays whether the path in Space has been found to be associated with either datum northern sunset (ss) or datum northern sunrise (sr.)
Both datum settings refer to the celestial meridians corresponding to sunset and sunrise at 53 degrees north latitude on the day of the events. (The reason for this preference is currently obscure.)

'Genr'
refers to the term 'Generator' previously defined.

'y'
denotes the 'continuous orbit' sequence with which the identified ground track can be associated.
Three such notional sequences were discovered and these are labelled 'a,'  'b' or 'c' in these tabulations.

If two different tracks in a given activity period are found to link two events separated by several hours - and those tracks are labelled with the same sequence identifier - then the two events could be the result of activities by the same orbiter continually orbiting the planet, albeit at super-orbital speed.

'Type'
is the heading under which an abbreviated alphanumeric with only four characters is used to describe, as closely as possible, the UFO described by the witness(es.)

A list of the abbreviations, commonly used, is given below:

CE-1, CE-2, CE-3, CE-4 and CE-5 refer to
Close Encounters of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th Kinds respectively.

aclo: aircraft-like object (doing unusual things.)

airc: aircraft crash in mysterious circumstances, possibly UFO-related.

airo: an object seen from the air or interacting with an aircraft.

blko: black-coloured object which may, at night, blot out the stars.

bluo blue-coloured object or large light, often manoeuvring.

boxo: box-shaped object

cigr: cigar-shaped object.

cylo: cylindrical object.

diao: diamond-shaped object

disc: disc-shaped object.

exit: object disappearing rapidly skywards.

expl: mysterious loud explosion(s) covering a large area but with no obvious source. Suspected of being UFO-related for various reasons.

firb: fireball-like globe of light, sometimes slow-moving and manoeuvring.Colours vary.

glob: glowing ball or other object.

gond: a gondola-shaped craft.

grno: green-coloured object or large light, often maneouvring.

hovo: hovering object (no other details given.)

lits: light (or lights) in the sky, looking unusual or behaving unusually, sometimes as if attached to the unidentified craft.

ltis: denotes local standard time in decimal hours.

meto: meteoric object which was unusual.

mult: several craft-like objects seen together.

orgo: orange-coloured object or large light, often manoeuvring.

redo: red-coloured object or large light, often manoeuvring.

rndo: round object (no further details.)

satn: Saturn-shaped object.

sato: Satellite-like object (which may be seen to manoeuvre.)

sauc: refers to a classic, upturned saucer-shaped object.

silo: silver object (usually seen in daylight.)

trio: triangular object.

unkn: insufficient description given, for various reasons.

vdeo: means that the object was captured on video, and is permanently recorded.

wate: a water event. Objects seen entering or leaving reservoirs, lakes or seas.

SIX.   EXAMPLES FROM PROCESSED DATABASE LISTING

6.1

Extracted examples will now be given to illustrate the tactics identified in Para. 4 above. Each subsection will be considered in turn, excluding 4.1, for which no evidence has been found to date.

Para. 4.2   Tactics linking different countries during a given time slot.

Section 4.2(a) SAME TRACK, different orientations.